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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-05-06T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-05-06T22:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46015/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME first seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2 starting around 2026-05-06T22:00Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 but is covered by a real-time data gap in STEREO A COR2. There are two source candidates for this CME. The first is an eruption from AR 14431 beginning around 2026-05-06T16:20Z best seen in SDO AIA 304. The second and more likely source candidate is a filament eruption beginning around 2026-05-06T19:00Z. The filament spans approximately S30-40E00-30 and is best seen lifting off in SDO AIA 304. Preliminarily closing this event as a non-arrival at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-10T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46017/1
Model Inputs:
2026-05-06T22:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=-37.0, Speed=416.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2026-05-07T05:39Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-05-10T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-05-14T12:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-05-12T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260507_053900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 88.97 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2026-05-07T01:02Z

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